POEM 15.03.17

Q How well can we predict the risk of developing asthma in preschool children?

A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough.  J Allergy Clin Immunol. 2014

• 10 predictors with total score between 0 -15: sex, age, wheeze without colds, wheeze frequency, activity disturbance, shortness of breath, exercise-related and aeroallergen-related wheeze/cough, eczema, and parental history of asthma/bronchitis
• 1226 symptomatic children, 345 (28%) had asthma 5 years later
• 840 (69%) children were at low risk (score <5)  16% with asthma at school age
• 288 (23%) were at medium risk (score >6 and <9) 48% with asthma at school age
• 98 (8%) were at high risk (score >10) 79% with asthma at school age

A. with Sensitivity 72%  Specificity 71%

link to the tool